Why LP Early
MarkIt's pool mechanics create a compounding advantage for early LPs. Understanding how bet volume deepens the pool — and why that benefits LPs disproportionately — is key to evaluating the opportunity.
Bets Grow the Pool
Every position placed deposits USDC into the contract. After a 2% protocol fee is transferred out, the remaining 98% stays in the pool alongside LP capital. This means:
An LP deposits 5,000 USDC to seed a market
100,000 USDC in betting volume adds ~98,000 USDC to the contract
The pool now holds ~103,000 USDC — but the LP still owns 100% of the LP shares
Bettors add real liquidity to the contract, but they don't earn fees for it. Only LP shareholders collect fee revenue. Bettors are effectively lending their capital to the pool for free in exchange for their directional exposure.
A Deeper Pool Accepts Bigger Bets
The protocol's solvency invariant limits how much open interest a market can support based on the contract's USDC balance. As bets flow in and the balance grows:
The solvency ceiling rises — the contract can back larger liabilities
The skew cap expands — more room for one-sided flow before hitting risk limits
Larger individual positions become possible
This is self-reinforcing. Early volume deepens the pool, which allows the market to accept larger late bets, which deepens the pool further — all generating fees that accrue to LP shareholders.
How Much LP Capital Is Actually Needed?
Less than you'd think. In a balanced market, bettors' own USDC covers almost all of the worst-case payout. LP capital primarily covers the skew gap — the imbalance between YES and NO liabilities.
Balanced (50/50)
$500K
~$0
Bettors fund both sides equally
Moderate (60/40)
$500K
~$0
Price-tracking volume keeps liabilities balanced
Skewed (75/25)
$500K
~$75K–$85K
Dominant side creates excess liability
Heavy (85/15)
$500K
~$150K+
LP covers significant payout gap
In balanced and moderate markets, the LP deposit functions more like a starter than the engine. The bettors' capital does most of the solvency work.
The Early LP Advantage
Early LPs capture fees on the full volume, but their capital does progressively less of the work:
Market opens. LP capital is 100% of the pool. The LP is providing all the backing.
First bets arrive. Bettor USDC flows in. The pool grows. LP capital is now maybe 50% of the balance, but still earning fees on 100% of volume.
Volume ramps. The pool is now mostly bettor capital. LP capital might be 10% of the balance — but LP shareholders still collect fees on every dollar that flows through.
The LP's share of the pool's backing decreases, but their claim on fee revenue doesn't. This is the core economic incentive: LP fees scale with volume, not with the LP's share of the pool balance.
What This Means in Practice
For a market with 1,000,000 USDC in total volume and a 5,000 USDC LP deposit:
~15,000 USDC in LP fees accumulate in the pool (~1.5% average)
The LP's 5,000 USDC deposit earned 15,000 USDC in fees — a 300% return on a single market
The bettors contributed ~980,000 USDC to the contract balance, doing the heavy lifting on solvency
Returns scale with volume, not pool size. A small LP deposit in a high-volume market can dramatically outperform a large deposit in a quiet one. The best LP strategy is identifying markets that will see heavy trading activity.
The Trade-Off
This upside comes with real risk. LPs absorb variance when markets are skewed — if the crowded side wins, fee revenue may not fully offset the payout deficit. The dynamic fee model compensates for this (crowded-side bets pay up to 5% in LP fees), but LP capital is never risk-free. See Risk and Exposure for the full picture.
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